Saurfang-25: The Numbers

I've been looking at the fights for Deathbringer Saurfang. Here are some quick observations:

1. We generally wipe after 8 1/2 minutes (approximately 500 seconds)
2. Saurfang has 31.1 million health.
3. He summons 5 blood beasts with 93k health every 30 seconds (total health 7.4 million for 16 packs).
4. During this time he will mark 5 people. If we let 4 of them die he will heal a total of 6.2 million, so we have to burn through 44.7 million health in 500 seconds.
5. Raid DPS required is therefore 90k/second.
6. I think we can do this with 2 tanks, 5 heals, and 18 DPS. Allowing for casualties we'll have an average of 16 DPS alive.
7. That comes out to 5625 per person, including DPS lost due to switching targets. A tall order but not impossible.

Now, some more detailed analysis.

Blood Power Build Up

The one unavoidable source of blood-power is Boiling Blood. Looking at the logs, it looks like the total number of ticks, on a raid basis, is about 55 ticks per minute, with an damage of a little over 4k per tick.

The tanks are taking about 6k DPS.

Anyone afflicted by Mark of the Fallen Champion takes about 5k DPS and gives Saurfang 1 blood point every 1.25 seconds (48 per minute).

Keeping People Alive

So here's how the fight progresses given perfect play and assuming we keep people alive:

Initial: 55 blood power/minute, raid DTPS 10k.
109 seconds: First mark. 103 blood power/minute, raid DTPS 15k.
167 seconds: Second mark. 151 blood power/minute, raid DTPS 20k.
206 seconds: Third mark. 199 blood power/minute, raid DTPS 25k.
236 seconds: Fourth mark. 247 blood power/minute, raid DTPS 30k.
260 seconds: Fifth mark. 295 blood power/minute, raid DTPS 35k. People start dying and the wipe begins.

In 260 seconds 8 blood beast packs will spawn, so the total health to be burned through will be 34.8 million. This strategy requires 134k raid DPS: 8.4k per second per person. I've looked at the 'tank spot' video and, in fact, these are approximately the numbers they're getting: they get the first mark at 87 seconds, at which point they've burned down 3 blood beast packs and burned through 10 million of his health, for a raid DPS of 130k. Given the fact that most of our DPS is closer to 4k than 8k I don't think
we can make this strategy work.

Letting People Die

Lets suppose we let people die, and suppose we go with 2 tanks and 5 healers and just let people die. Lets also suppose we get 6k average DPS, so we have 18 DPS. That gives 108k raid DPS. I'll also suppose
we only lose DPS. If nobody has a mark then the raid DTPS should only be 10k or so, which is pretty easy
to heal with 5 healers... in truth we could probably manage with 3 healers.

Initial: Raid DPS 108k.
109 seconds: First casualty. 11.8 million damage done. 1.7 million goes to blood beasts, saurfang heals 1.6 million, health is 22.6 Raid DPS now 102k.

218 seconds: Second casualty. 11.1 million damage done. Saurfang's health is now 14.8M. Raid DPS is now 96k.

327 seconds: Third casualty. 10.4 million damage done. Saurfang's health is now 7.7M Raid DPS is now 90k.

417 seconds: Saurfang should die about now.

Based on these numbers, it is MUCH easier to down Saurfang with a 'let them die' strategy; on paper we should be able to down him in 7-8 minutes with initial raid DPS a little over 100K. With the 'keep them alive' strategy it looks like we would need more like 130K raid DPS. We can probably get by with a little less, but not much, and everything above assumes more-or-less perfect play.